Spread of Oil Pollution in the Black Sea after the Accidents at the “Volgoneft” Tankers in December 2024 Based on Numerical Simulations using the Model FOTS MHI, as well as Satellite and In-Situ Measurement Data

A. A. Kubryakov1, ✉, A. A. Georga-Kopoulos1, S. V. Stanichny1, A. L. Kholod1, A. V. Kleshchenkov2, V. V. Kulygin2, O. S. Puzina1, A. I. Mizyuk1

1 Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS, Sevastopol, Russian Federation

2 Southern Research Center of RAS, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation

✉ e-mail: arskubr@yandex.ru

Abstract

Purpose. This study investigates the chronology and spatial extent of fuel oil pollution resulting from the sinking of the tankers Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 in the Kerch Strait on 15 December 2024, assesses the associated environmental impacts and evaluates the performance of an operational oil spill transport forecasting system.

Methods and Results. Oil spill transport was modelled using Floating Object Tracking System (FOTS), a Lagrangian-based tool developed at Marine Hydrophysical Institute, RAS, and the data from the NEMO numerical model and the Global Forecast System (GFS) meteorological fields. The calculations were validated against Sentinel-1 and Landsat-8 satellite imagery as well as in-situ observations. The accident resulted in a spill of 2500–3000 tons of M-100 fuel oil, contaminating over 700 km of coastline from Yevpatoriya to Anapa. The active phase of pollution spreading lasted 25 days. Five types of coastal contamination were identified, including buried fuel oil layers (total mass is 25.3 tons) at depths of 12–35 cm. Subtidal accumulations of fuel oil in the Kerch Strait and near Anapa currently act as sources of secondary pollution.

Conclusions. The FOTS demonstrated good forecasting accuracy having promptly identified the areas of beach contaminations in Anapa, Kerch, Sevastopol and Yevpatoriya. Validation using satellite imagery and in-situ observations confirmed the model’s quality and efficiency over timescales exceeding 25 days. The modeling results made it possible to construct a detailed spatial-temporal pattern of fuel oil distribution in the Black Sea. Most of the spilled oil was transported to the deep part of the Black Sea where depths exceeded 500 m. The specific features of M-100 fuel oil contributed to the exceptionally long period of active spreading phase and formation of secondary pollution sources, which require long-term ecosystem monitoring. The emergency response demonstrated the importance of applying FOTS to minimize environmental damage and underscored the need for developing similar regional forecasting systems for other regions of Russia.

Keywords

Volgoneft, oil pollution, fuel oil spill, satellite monitoring, trajectory modeling, propagation dynamics, Black Sea, Kerch Strait

Acknowledgements

The publication was financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 075-15-2024-528 of 24.04.2024 on the implementation of a large-scale research project within the priority areas of scientific and technological development).

Original russian text

Original Russian Text © The Authors, 2025, published in MORSKOY GIDROFIZICHESKIY ZHURNAL, Vol. 41, Iss. 6, pp. 767–787 (2025)

For citation

Kubryakov, A.A., Georga-Kopoulos, A.A., Stanichny, S.V., Kholod, A.L., Kleshchenkov, A.V., Kulygin, V.V., Puzina, O.S. and Mizyuk, A.I., 2025. Spread of Oil Pollution in the Black Sea after the Accidents at the “Volgoneft” Tankers in December 2024 Based on Numerical Simulations using the Model FOTS MHI, as well as Satellite and In-Situ Measurement Data. Physical Oceanography, 32(6), pp. 788-806.

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