Modeling the Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Black Sea Based on Calculations of the Three-Dimensional Numerical Physical-Biochemical Model NEMO-BFM

P. N. Lishaev✉, E. A. Kubryakova, A. A. Kubryakov

Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS, Sevastopol, Russian Federation

✉ e-mail: pavellish@mail.ru

Abstract

Purpose. The purpose of the work is to study the seasonal, interannual, and spatial variability of key nutrients, chlorophyll a concentration, and phytoplankton species (including large and small diatoms and coccolithophores) dominant in the Black Sea based on numerical modeling.

Methods and Results. Numerical calculations for the period 2008–2014 were performed using the NEMO-BFM three-dimensional model adapted to the Black Sea basin. The modeling results made it possible to reproduce the autumn and spring “blooms” of small diatoms, as well as to describe the features of spatial variability of phytoplankton in the Black Sea, particularly the dominance of large diatoms on the basin shelf. After being added to the model, the parameterizations of coccolithophore osmotrophy and dissolved organic matter photodegradation processes permitted the qualitative reproduction of the coccolithophore seasonal variability characteristic of the central Black Sea, namely a summer “bloom” in the upper 20 m layer from late April to July. The model-derived “bloom” begins somewhat earlier than that obtained from in situ observations. The resulting spatial variability in the distribution of coccolithophore concentration at the sea surface qualitatively agrees with remote-sensing data. The summer “bloom” is most intense in the central Black Sea, where the phosphate influx from the nutricline to the upper layer is most active. Then the coccolithophore concentration increases towards the continental slope, reaching its highest values there. Moreover, the model has reproduced the winter coccolithophore “bloom”, which is weaker as compared to the summer one. The above patterns of coccolithophore variability are consistent with Bio-Argo floats measurements.

Conclusions. The developed NEMO-BFM model is a tool that makes it possible to reproduce the spatial variability of chemical and biological substances in the Black Sea and to study their relations with the impact of various physical processes: wind and convective mixing, large-scale and synoptic water dynamics, and propagation of river plumes.

Keywords

Black Sea, numerical modeling, coccolithophores, diatoms, zooplankton, suboxic zone, oxidation-reduction reactions, Bio-Argo floats, chlorophyll a, NEMO, BFM

Acknowledgements

Setting up a three-dimensional biogeochemical BFM model for the Black Sea basin, as well as validation of the obtained model results, were carried out within the framework of the state assignment theme of FSBSI FRC MHI FNNN-2024-0012 “Analysis, diagnosis, and operational forecast of the state of hydrophysical and hydrochemical fields of seawater areas based on mathematical modeling using the data of remote and contact measurement methods”; the impact of eddy dynamics on phytoplankton spatial and temporal variability was studied under the RSF grant No. 23-17-00056. The authors are grateful to A.S. Mikaelyan, V.A. Silkin, A.G. Zatsepin, and E.G. Arashkevich for their valuable advice.

About the authors

Pavel N. Lishaev, Researcher, Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS (2 Kapitanskaya Str., Sevastopol, 299011, Russian Federation), CSc. (Phys.-Math.), SPIN-code: 2241-1505, Scopus Author ID: 57193071072, WoS ResearcherID: A-7770-2019, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-5259-3309, pavellish@mail.ru

Elena A. Kubryakova, Senior Researcher, Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS (2 Kapitanskaya Str., Sevastopol, 299011, Russian Federation), CSc. (Phys.-Math.), SPIN-code: 7946-8985, Scopus Author ID: 57188747330, WoS ResearcherID: G-1433-2014, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-6071-1881, elena_kubryakova@mail.ru

Arseny A. Kubryakov, Deputy Director for Scientific Affairs, Marine Hydrophysical Institute of RAS (2 Kapitanskaya Str., Sevastopol, 299011, Russian Federation), DSc. (Phys.-Math.), SPIN-code: 4371-8879, Scopus Author ID: 37072750100, WoS ResearcherID: F-8921-2014, ORCID ID: 0000-0003-3561-5913, arskubr@yandex.ru

Original russian text

Original Russian Text © P. N. Lishaev, E. A. Kubryakova, A. A. Kubryakov, 2026, published in MORSKOY GIDROFIZICHESKIY ZHURNAL, Vol. 42, Iss. 1, pp. 115–143 (2026)

For citation

Lishaev, P.N., Kubryakova, E.A. and Kubryakov, A.A., 2026. Modeling the Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Black Sea Based on Calculations of the Three-Dimensional Numerical Physical-Biochemical Model NEMO-BFM. Physical Oceanography, 33(1), pp. 127-155.

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