<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.3 20210610//EN" "JATS-journalpublishing1-3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xml:lang="en">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Physical Oceanography</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title xml:lang="en">Physical Oceanography</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn publication-format="print">1573-160X</issn>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">20230605</article-id>
      
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
          <subject>Experimental and field research</subject>
        </subj-group>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="article-type">
          <subject>Research Article</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>

      <title-group>
        <article-title xml:lang="en">Variability of Upwelling Characteristics in the Southeastern Baltic Sea in the First Two Decades of the 21st Century</article-title>
      </title-group>

      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7507-3170</contrib-id>
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="researcherid">L-2625-2016</contrib-id>
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="scopus">57201388973</contrib-id>
          <name>
            <surname>Kapustina</surname>
            <given-names>M. V.</given-names>
          </name>
          <address>
            <country country="RU">Russian Federation</country>
          </address>
          <email>kapustina.mariya@ya.ru</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1662-6385</contrib-id>
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="researcherid">C-5885-2014</contrib-id>
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="scopus">55032301400</contrib-id>
          <name>
            <surname>Zimin</surname>
            <given-names>A. V.</given-names>
          </name>
          <address>
            <country country="RU">Russian Federation</country>
          </address>
          <email>zimin2@mail.ru</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>

      <aff id="aff1">
        <institution>Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences</institution>
        <addr-line>Moscow</addr-line>
        <country country="RU">Russian Federation</country>
      </aff>

      <pub-date date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2023-12-31" publication-format="electronic">
        <day>31</day>
        <month>12</month>
        <year>2023</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>30</volume>
      <issue>6</issue>
      <fpage>760</fpage>
      <lpage>775</lpage>

      <history>
        <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2023-03-24">
          <day>24</day>
          <month>02</month>
          <year>2023</year>
        </date>
        <date date-type="rev-recd" iso-8601-date="2023-08-29">
          <day>29</day>
          <month>08</month>
          <year>2023</year>
        </date>
        <date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2023-09-06">
          <day>06</day>
          <month>09</month>
          <year>2023</year>
        </date>
      </history>

      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement xml:lang="en">Copyright ©; 2023, M. V. Kapustina, A. V. Zimin</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2023</copyright-year>
        <copyright-holder xml:lang="en">M. V. Kapustina, A. V. Zimin</copyright-holder>
        <ali:free_to_read xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/"/>
        <license>
          <ali:license_ref xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/</ali:license_ref>
        </license>
      </permissions>
      <self-uri xlink:href="https://physical-oceanography.ru/repository/issues/2023/06/05/" xlink:title="Article page">https://physical-oceanography.ru/repository/issues/2023/06/05/</self-uri>
      
      <abstract xml:lang="en">
        <p><bold>Purpose.</bold> The study is purposed at systematizing the regional features of coastal upwelling in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea (SEB) during the summer seasons of 2000–2019 in a changing climate.</p>
        <p><bold>Methods and Results.</bold> The results of the identification of upwelling events in the southeastern Baltic Sea are presented as a negative anomaly of the coastal sea surface temperature relative to the selected area of the open sea. The estimates of influence of the local and global atmospheric processes (based on the data on wind characteristics and SCAND and NAO teleconnection indices) upon the upwelling event characteristics (frequency, duration and area) were obtained. On average, 4 upwelling events with a total duration exceeding 20 days were observed at the upwelling zone average area of about 620 km². The upwelling frequency in the area under study was the highest along the northern part of the Curonian Spit and the Sambia Peninsula western coast. In comparison to 2000–2009, the upwelling durations in the summer seasons of 2010–2019 were recorded to decrease by about 8 days at the decline of frequency of the winds favorable for their development by 4–5%. The correlation between the number of upwelling days in the southeastern Baltic Sea and the SCAND index is established (the correlation coefficient was 0.65) that allows further attempts on obtaining the long-term forecasts of the probability of coastal upwelling development in the southeastern Baltic Sea.</p>
        <p><bold>Conclusions.</bold> It is shown that a steady decrease in the upwelling frequency in the SEB in recent decades is related to a declining frequency of the upwelling-favorable winds largely conditioned by the anticyclogenesis development over the Scandinavian Peninsula.</p>
      </abstract>

      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>coastal upwelling</kwd>
        <kwd>upwelling type</kwd>
        <kwd>interannual variability</kwd>
        <kwd>large-scale atmospheric circulation</kwd>
        <kwd>southeastern Baltic Sea</kwd>
      </kwd-group>

      <funding-group>
        <funding-statement xml:lang="en">The study was carried out within the framework of the theme of state assignment of IO RAS FMWE-2021-0012.</funding-statement>
      </funding-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>

  <body>
    <p>Article text not included.</p>
  </body>

  <back>
    <ref-list>
      <title>REFERENCES</title>
      <ref id="B1">
        <label>1.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Golenko</surname><given-names>N. N.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Golenko</surname><given-names>M. N.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Shchuka</surname><given-names>S. A.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Observation and Modeling of Upwelling in the Southeastern Baltic</article-title>
          <source>Oceanology</source>
          <year>2009</year>
          <volume>49</volume>
          <issue>1</issue>
          <fpage>15</fpage>
          <lpage>21</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1134/S0001437009010020</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B2">
        <label>2.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Kapustina</surname><given-names>M. V.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Zimin</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Upwelling Spatiotemporal Characteristics in the Southeastern Baltic Sea in 2010–2019</article-title>
          <source>Fundamentalnaya i Prikladnaya Gidrofizika</source>
          <year>2021</year>
          <volume>14</volume>
          <issue>4</issue>
          <fpage>52</fpage>
          <lpage>63</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.7868/S2073667321040055</pub-id>
          <comment>(in Russian)</comment>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B3">
        <label>3.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Bednorz</surname><given-names>E.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Półrolniczak</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Czernecki</surname><given-names>B.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Synoptic Conditions Governing Upwelling along the Polish Baltic Coast</article-title>
          <source>Oceanologia</source>
          <year>2013</year>
          <volume>55</volume>
          <issue>4</issue>
          <fpage>767</fpage>
          <lpage>785</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5697/oc.55-4.767</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B4">
        <label>4.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Zhurbas</surname><given-names>V. M.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Stipa</surname><given-names>T.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Mälkki</surname><given-names>P.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Paka</surname><given-names>V. T.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Kuz'mina</surname><given-names>N. P.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Sklyarov</surname><given-names>V. E.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Mesoscale Variability of the Upwelling in the Southeastern Baltic Sea: IR Images and Numerical Modeling</article-title>
          <source>Oceanology</source>
          <year>2004</year>
          <volume>44</volume>
          <issue>5</issue>
          <fpage>619</fpage>
          <lpage>628</lpage>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B5">
        <label>5.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Esiukova</surname><given-names>E. E.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Chubarenko</surname><given-names>I. P.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Stont</surname><given-names>Zh. I.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Upwelling or Differential Cooling? Analysis of Satellite SST Images of the Southeastern Baltic Sea</article-title>
          <source>Water Resources</source>
          <year>2017</year>
          <volume>44</volume>
          <issue>1</issue>
          <fpage>69</fpage>
          <lpage>77</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1134/S0097807817010043</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B6">
        <label>6.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Bednorz</surname><given-names>E.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Półrolniczak</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Czernecki</surname><given-names>B.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Tomczyk</surname><given-names>A. M.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Atmospheric Forcing of Coastal Upwelling in the Southern Baltic Sea Basin</article-title>
          <source>Atmosphere</source>
          <year>2019</year>
          <volume>10</volume>
          <issue>6</issue>
          <fpage>327</fpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3390/atmos10060327</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B7">
        <label>7.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Krek</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Krek</surname><given-names>E. V.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Danchenkov</surname><given-names>A. R.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Krechik</surname><given-names>V. A.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Kapustina</surname><given-names>M. V.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>The Role of Upwellings in the Coastal Ecosystem of the Southeastern Baltic Sea</article-title>
          <source>Regional Studies in Marine Science</source>
          <year>2021</year>
          <volume>44</volume>
          <fpage>101707</fpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.rsma.2021.101707</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B8">
        <label>8.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Lehmann</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Myrberg</surname><given-names>K.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Upwelling in the Baltic Sea – A Review</article-title>
          <source>Journal of Marine Systems</source>
          <year>2008</year>
          <volume>74</volume>
          <issue>Suppl.</issue>
          <fpage>S3</fpage>
          <lpage>S12</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.02.010</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B9">
        <label>9.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Esiukova</surname><given-names>E. E.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Stont</surname><given-names>Zh. I.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Chubarenko</surname><given-names>I. P.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Characteristic Manifestations of Coastal Upwelling and Cascading by Remote Sensing Data on the Southeastern Baltic</article-title>
          <source>Izvestiya KGTU</source>
          <year>2014</year>
          <volume>35</volume>
          <fpage>21</fpage>
          <lpage>31</lpage>
          <comment>(in Russian)</comment>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B10">
        <label>10.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Hela</surname><given-names>I.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Vertical Velocity of the Upwelling in the Sea</article-title>
          <source>Commentationes Physico-Mathematicae</source>
          <year>1976</year>
          <volume>46</volume>
          <issue>1</issue>
          <fpage>9</fpage>
          <lpage>24</lpage>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B11">
        <label>11.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Delpeche-Ellmann</surname><given-names>N.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Giudici</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Rätsep</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Soomere</surname><given-names>T.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Observations of Surface Drift and Effects Induced by Wind and Surface Waves in the Baltic Sea for the Period 2011–2018</article-title>
          <source>Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science</source>
          <year>2021</year>
          <volume>249</volume>
          <fpage>107071</fpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.ecss.2020.107071</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B12">
        <label>12.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Meier</surname><given-names>H. M. M.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Kniebusch</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Dieterich</surname><given-names>C.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Gröger</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Zorita</surname><given-names>E.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Elmgren</surname><given-names>R.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Myrberg</surname><given-names>K.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Ahola</surname><given-names>M. P.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Bartosova</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name>
            <etal/>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary</article-title>
          <source>Earth System Dynamics</source>
          <year>2022</year>
          <volume>13</volume>
          <issue>1</issue>
          <fpage>457</fpage>
          <lpage>593</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/esd-13-457-2022</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B13">
        <label>13.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="book">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Rutgersson</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Jaagus</surname><given-names>J.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Schenk</surname><given-names>F.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Stendel</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Bärring</surname><given-names>L.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Briede</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Claremar</surname><given-names>B.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Hanssen-Bauer</surname><given-names>I.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Holopainen</surname><given-names>J.</given-names></name>
            <etal/>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Recent Change – Atmosphere</article-title>
          <source>Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin</source>
          <year>2015</year>
          <fpage>69</fpage>
          <lpage>97</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_4</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B14">
        <label>14.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Bychkova</surname><given-names>I. A.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Viktorov</surname><given-names>S. V.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Shumakher</surname><given-names>D. A.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>A Relationship between the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and the Origin of Coastal Upwelling in the Baltic Sea</article-title>
          <source>Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya</source>
          <year>1988</year>
          <volume>10</volume>
          <fpage>91</fpage>
          <lpage>98</lpage>
          <comment>(in Russian)</comment>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B15">
        <label>15.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Bednorz</surname><given-names>E.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Półrolniczak</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Tomczyk</surname><given-names>A. M.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Regional Circulation Patterns Inducing Coastal Upwelling in the Baltic Sea</article-title>
          <source>Theoretical and Applied Climatology</source>
          <year>2021</year>
          <volume>144</volume>
          <issue>3-4</issue>
          <fpage>905</fpage>
          <lpage>916</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1007/s00704-021-03539-7</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B16">
        <label>16.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Lehmann</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Krauss</surname><given-names>W.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Hinrichsen</surname><given-names>H.-H.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Effects of Remote and Local Atmospheric Forcing on Circulation and Upwelling in the Baltic Sea</article-title>
          <source>Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography</source>
          <year>2002</year>
          <volume>54</volume>
          <issue>3</issue>
          <fpage>299</fpage>
          <lpage>316</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.00289.x</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B17">
        <label>17.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Myrberg</surname><given-names>K.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Andrejev</surname><given-names>O.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Lehmann</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Dynamic Features of Successive Upwelling Events in the Baltic Sea – A Numerical Case Study</article-title>
          <source>Oceanologia</source>
          <year>2010</year>
          <volume>52</volume>
          <issue>1</issue>
          <fpage>77</fpage>
          <lpage>99</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5697/oc.52-1.077</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B18">
        <label>18.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Lehmann</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Myrberg</surname><given-names>K.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Höflich</surname><given-names>K.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>A Statistical Approach to Coastal Upwelling in the Baltic Sea Based on the Analysis of Satellite Data for 1990–2009</article-title>
          <source>Oceanologia</source>
          <year>2012</year>
          <volume>54</volume>
          <issue>3</issue>
          <fpage>369</fpage>
          <lpage>393</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5697/oc.54-3.369</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B19">
        <label>19.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Gidhagen</surname><given-names>L.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Coastal Upwelling in the Baltic – A Presentation of Satellite and in Situ Measurements of Sea Surface Temperatures Indicating Coastal Upwelling</article-title>
          <source>SMHI Reports Hydrology and Oceanography</source>
          <year>1984</year>
          <volume>37</volume>
          <fpage>1</fpage>
          <lpage>37</lpage>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B20">
        <label>20.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Dabuleviciene</surname><given-names>T.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Kozlov</surname><given-names>I. E.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Vaiciute</surname><given-names>D.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Dailidiene</surname><given-names>I.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Remote Sensing of Coastal Upwelling in the South-Eastern Baltic Sea: Statistical Properties and Implications for the Coastal Environment</article-title>
          <source>Remote Sensing</source>
          <year>2018</year>
          <volume>10</volume>
          <issue>11</issue>
          <fpage>1752</fpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3390/rs10111752</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B21">
        <label>21.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Lehmann</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Getzlaff</surname><given-names>K.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Harlass</surname><given-names>J.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Detailed Assessment of Climate Variability in the Baltic Sea Area for the Period 1958 to 2009</article-title>
          <source>Climate Research</source>
          <year>2011</year>
          <volume>46</volume>
          <issue>2</issue>
          <fpage>185</fpage>
          <lpage>196</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3354/cr00876</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B22">
        <label>22.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Myrberg</surname><given-names>K.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Andrejev</surname><given-names>O.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Main Upwelling Regions in the Baltic Sea – A Statistical Analysis Based on Three-Dimensional Modelling</article-title>
          <source>Boreal Environment Research</source>
          <year>2003</year>
          <volume>8</volume>
          <issue>2</issue>
          <fpage>97</fpage>
          <lpage>112</lpage>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="B23">
        <label>23.</label>
        <element-citation publication-type="journal">
          <person-group person-group-type="author">
            <name><surname>Liu</surname><given-names>Y.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Wang</surname><given-names>L.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Zhou</surname><given-names>W.</given-names></name>
            <name><surname>Chen</surname><given-names>W.</given-names></name>
          </person-group>
          <article-title>Three Eurasian Teleconnection Patterns: Spatial Structures, Temporal Variability, and Associated Winter Climate Anomalies</article-title>
          <source>Climate Dynamics</source>
          <year>2014</year>
          <volume>42</volume>
          <issue>11-12</issue>
          <fpage>2817</fpage>
          <lpage>2839</lpage>
          <pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1007/s00382-014-2163-z</pub-id>
        </element-citation>
      </ref>
    </ref-list>
  </back>
</article>
