Purpose. The work is aimed at studying the possibility of short-term tsunami forecasting in the Kuril Islands based on the data on tsunamis in the open ocean.

Methods and Results. The methods underlying the actions of tsunami warning services in the northwestern Pacific Ocean are considered. The warning services relying on primary seismological information on an earthquake (magnitude criterion), produce a large number of false tsunami alarms. An adequate forecast is provided by the services that use information on a tsunami formed in the open ocean (hydrophysical methods). The problem of short-term (operational) tsunami forecasting for the Kuril Islands is described. Information on the actions of tsunami warning services during the events is provided. The process of forecasting using the express method of tsunami operational forecast is numerically simulated under the assumption of obtaining real-time information on tsunamis in the ocean. The events of 2006–2020 in the northwest Pacific Ocean are simulated. The results of numerical experiments involving actual data confirms the fact that the express method can be used for a short-term tsunami forecast in specific locations of the Kuril Islands with an advance time sufficient for taking a timely decision to declare an alarm and evacuate the population from hazardous places.

Conclusions. Development of the express method for short-term tsunami forecasting, provided that information on tsunamis in the ocean is available quickly, will make it possible to improve in future the quality of forecasting and thereby reduce the number of false tsunami alarms on the Kuril Islands. The necessity of creating own, Russian, deep-sea ocean level measurement stations is shown.