Physical Oceanography Physical Oceanography 1573-160X 20260309 Analysis of observations and methods of calculating Hydrophysical fields in the ocean Research Article Simulation of a Fuel Oil Spill Using the Oil-Spill Model SPILLMOD 7656-6621 AAB-6735-2019 Solbakov V. V.
Russian Federation
vsolbakov@frccsc.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7072-3920 T-1242-2018 3922-3330 Zatsepa S. N.
Russian Federation
zatsepa@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6785-1956 R-8307-2018 5450-6667 Diansky N. A.
Russian Federation
nikolay.diansky@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3828-378X 5443-1160 Ivchenko A. A.
Russian Federation
alivch654@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2310-9730 AAE-3617-2019 1754-4563 Korshenko E. A.
Russian Federation
zhenyakorshenko@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8338-4825 AAE-4131-2019 1193-6046 Panasenkova I. I.
Russian Federation
ipanasenkova@mail.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8857-1518 C-2124-2017 8803-9548 Fomin V. V.
Russian Federation
vladimirfomin@gmail.com Federal Research Center "Computer Science and Control", Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow Russia N. N. Zubov's State Oceanographic Institute, Roshydromet Moscow Russia M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University Moscow Russia Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow Russia Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Moscow Russia Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Moscow Russia 28 02 2026 33 3 516 537 09 10 2025 22 10 2025 16 03 2026 Copyright ©; 2026, V. V. Solbakov, S. N. Zatsepa, N. A. Diansky, A. A. Ivchenko, E. A. Korshenko, I. I. Panasenkova, V. V. Fomin 2026 V. V. Solbakov, S. N. Zatsepa, N. A. Diansky, A. A. Ivchenko, E. A. Korshenko, I. I. Panasenkova, V. V. Fomin https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ https://physical-oceanography.ru/repository/issues/2026/03/09/

Purpose. The aim of the work is to comprehensively analyze the key factors distinguishing the accident involving the Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 tankers in the Kerch Strait on December 15, 2024 from many other spills, namely the fuel oil characteristics, the pollution source features, and the hydrometeorological conditions significant for mathematical modeling.

Methods and Results. The oil spill transport was simulated using a set of the SPILLMOD mathematical models. An integrated system for operational forecasting of hydrometeorological characteristics (Marine Hindcast and Forecast System, MHFS) including the regional atmospheric model WRF and the Russian marine circulation model INMOM was applied for hydrometeorological forecasts. The conducted assessments have shown that the specific features of the accident and the properties of transported fuel oil resulted in the prolonged fuel oil release from the source. However, 95 % of the tank contents was released within the first few days. During this period the source power decreases by at least two orders of magnitude.

Conclusions. The results of simulation performed in the first days after the accident are confirmed by coastal monitoring data. Application of the SPILLMOD model made it possible to determine the time and locations of the release of fuel oil pollution into the coastal zone. Subsequent assessments of the intensity of fuel oil spill revealed the fact that the bulk of the fuel oil that entered the sea was brought to the coast and shallow waters in the area from Veselovka settlement to Anapa resort city. The information on time, locations and volumes of fuel oil collected in this area are consistent with the proposed hypothesis on a rapid decrease with time of the intensity of fuel oil release to marine environment, and also indicate the adequate choice and successful application of the selected models, forecasts of hydrometeorological characteristics and calculation systems. The similarity between the density of fuel oil and that of water, its high viscosity and the hydrological characteristics of the Kerch Strait, the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea may result in both positive and negative buoyancy, as well as formation of seabed oil-mineral aggregates when fuel oil is combined with suspended matter and sand. Adequate forecast of the distribution of heavy oil types requires the improved models describing the transformation processes which include sedimentation of the dispersed and floating oil.

 fuel oil spill Kerch Strait mathematical modeling numerical modeling forecast of hydrometeorological characteristics hydrometeorological characteristics marine oil spills INMOM SPILLMOD Black Sea The study was carried out within the framework of state assignment of FSBSI FRC MHI (Project No. FNNN-2024-0001).

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