Forecast of Circulation Processes and Propagation of Oil Pollution in the Eastern Black Sea Based on the Regional Complex Model

Abstract

Regional system for the eastern Black Sea dynamic state short-term forecasting (the liquid boundary passes along 39.08 °E) is expanded by including the model of oil pollution spreading. The model is based on solution of a two-dimensional transfer-diffusion equation for non-conservative impurity using the two-cycle splitting method with respect to geometrical variables. Non-stationary current field necessary for calculation of oil pollution forecast is obtained by the regional model of the Black Sea dynamics, which is a core of the regional forecasting system. The regional model of sea dynamics is nested in the basin-scale model of Marine Hydrophysical Institute (MHI, Sevastopol). All the input data required for the calculation of current and thermohaline fields are taken from the MHI via the Internet in near-operational mode. Input parameters are the following: 3D initial fields of current velocity components, temperature and salinity; 2D fields of the same values on the liquid boundary; 2D meteorological fields of heat flows, precipitation, evaporation and the tangential wind stress at the sea surface. Alongside with a forecast of currents, temperature and salinity fields, the proposed system, if necessary, permits to forecast oil pollution spread for 3 days with 1 km spatial resolution. The numerical experiments performed for the cases of various locations of a hypothetic pollution source occurring under actual circulation modes show a significant role of dynamic processes in formation of some features of spatial-temporal pollution distribution.

Keywords

current field, numerical model, splitting method, diffusion, oil patch.

DOI: 10.22449/1573-160X-2015-1-3-14

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