Numerical Simulation of Tsunami in the Black Sea Caused by the Earthquake on September 12, 1927

Abstract

Within the framework of the nonlinear model of long waves, the numerical simulation of the tsunami evolution in the Black Sea caused by the Yalta earthquake of September 12, 1927 is performed. Two problems on propagation of tsunami waves from the elliptical source are solved: for the whole Black Sea water area and for the local part of the Crimea Southern coast. The calculations for the first numerical experiment are carried out on a 30-second bathymetric grid of the Black Sea. The sea level oscillations for several points on the Crimean and Caucasian coasts are calculated and compared with the available records of the tide gauges. The amplitudes of the model level oscillations in the coastal zone during propagation of tsunami waves are larger than those recorded instrumentally. This fact is related to inaccuracy in modeling the tsunami generation site due to small amount of information on this event. In all the points, except for Yalta, the sea level oscillations did not exceed the height of the tsunami center initial elevation. In Yalta the wave height can attain 2 m, in Evpatoria – 0.2 m, in Sevastopol – 0.4 m, in Feodosia – 0.5 m, in Kerch – 0.4 m, in Novorossiysk – 0.5 m, in Tuapse – 0.3 m and in Batumi – 0.5 m. The second numerical experiment implies calculation of the tsunami evolution followed by the wave run-up on the Crimea Southern coast. The 50-meter bathymetric grid is applied. For 10 points of the Crimea Southern coast, the sea level oscillations occurring during tsunamis are calculated and the amplitude characteristics during the wave run-up are assessed. The coastline in the region of Yalta, Nikita and Gurzuf is the most strongly affected. The height of the tsunami waves’ run-up on the coast in Nikita can make up 2 m, and the sea level drop at draining the coast – more than 3 m.

Keywords

nonlinear long waves, numerical simulation, tsunami in the Black Sea, Yalta earthquake of September 12, 1927, tsunami hazard of the Black Sea coast.

Acknowledgements

The study is carried out within the framework of the State Order No. 0827-2018-0004 “Complex Interdisciplinary Investigations of the Oceanologic Processes Conditioning Functioning and Evolution of the Ecosystems in the Black and Azov Sea Coastal Zones” (Coastal research code).

For citation

Bazykina, A.Yu., Mikhailichenko, S.Yu. and Fomin, V.V., 2018. Numerical Simulation of Tsunami in the Black Sea Caused by the Earthquake on September 12, 1927. Physical Oceanography, [e-journal] 25(4), pp. 295-304. doi:10.22449/1573-160X-2018-4-295-304

DOI

10.22449/1573-160X-2018-4-295-304

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