Modeling of the Black Sea Region Climate Changes in the XXI Century

V.V. Efimov1, E.M. Volodin2, ✉, A.E. Anisimov1

1 Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Sevastopol, Russian Federation

2 Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation

✉ e-mail: volodin@inm.ras.ru

Abstract

Numerical experiments on producing regional projections of climate changes in the Black Sea region in the end of the XXI century are performed. The regional numerical climate model HadRM3P and input data of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation global model INMCM4 (Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences) are used. Application of the regional model permits to reproduce mesoscale climate processes and to obtain new numerical estimates of regional climate changes with high spatial resolution which supplement large-scale assessments with new values. Changes of temperature and precipitation seasonal values in the future 2071 – 2100 period are compared with those of the control period in 1971 – 2000. According to the INMCM4 model, temperature in the Black Sea region will increase by 2.5 – 3°C in winter and 4 – 4.5°C in summer. In summer it will be accompanied by precipitation decrease up to 40%. For the territory of Ukraine and the central European part of Russia, the regional model produces more pronounced temperature growth in summer: up to 25 – 30%. The regional model forecast of summer precipitation changes in Ukraine and in the Balkan Peninsula is 30% lower than the analogous forecast of the global model. The obtained projections of climate changes in the Black Sea region can be considered as quite unfavorable for the agricultural sector.

Keywords

the Black Sea region, temperature, precipitation, climate change, climate modeling

For citation

Efimov, V.V., Volodin, E.M. and Anisimov, E.M., 2015. Modeling of the Black Sea Region Climate Changes in the XXI Century. Physical Oceanography, (2), pp. 3-13. doi:10.22449/1573-160X-2015-2-3-13

DOI

10.22449/1573-160X-2015-2-3-13

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