Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Black Sea Coast in the Regions of the Planned Coming Out of the Russia–Turkey Gas Pipelines

L.I. Lobkovsky1, R.Kh. Mazova2, ✉, I.V. Remizov2

1 P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation

2 R.E. Alekseev Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

✉ e-mail: raissamazova@yandex.ru

Abstract

The results of numerical simulation of tsunami waves in the Black Sea basin are represented for assessing possible tsunami hazards for the coastal zone in the points where the planned underwater parts of the Russia–Turkey gas pipelines (“Turkish Stream” and “Blue Stream – 2”) enter the sea and come out to the coast. Numerical simulation of the tsunami source generation and tsunami wave propagation in the Black Sea is carried out in two scenarios for 7 seismic sources. To assess potential tsunami hazard, each of the performed calculations implies modeling of the seismic sources in the basin regions (with due regard to the character of their geodynamic faults and structures) where the pipelines can possibly come out to the coast. Synthetic tide gauges along the coastline are used to analyze the results of the calculations. The simulation is done within the framework of the earthquake key-board model which takes into account the zones of active faults. For each model, the characteristics of the wave fields and the direction of the most intense propagation of the wave fronts are obtained and analyzed at the selected time points. The tsunami wave maximum heights are estimated for the places where the gas pipelines come out to the coast and enter the sea both on the Russian and Turkish coasts. It is shown that at moderate earthquakes, hazard of tsunami wave impact upon laying the gas pipelines along the considered directions is insignificant. At the same time, at stronger earthquakes, the danger of the coastal infrastructure destruction is real. Thus, the drawn conclusion implies strong necessity in the detailed tsunami zonation of the coast and marking out the local sections where the planned gas pipelines enter the sea and come out to the coast.

Keywords

tsunami, seismic and tsunami hazard, tsunamigenic earthquakes, tsunami waves, numerical simulation, the Black Sea coast

For citation

Lobkovsky, L.I., Mazova, R.Kh. and Remizov, I.V., 2017. Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Black Sea Coast in the Regions of the Planned Coming Out of the Russia–Turkey Gas Pipelines. Physical Oceanography, (3), pp. 77-90. doi:10.22449/1573-160X-2017-3-77-90

DOI

10.22449/1573-160X-2017-3-77-90

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