Assimilation of the Observational Data in the Marine Ecosystem Adaptive Model at the Known Mean Values of the Processes in the Marine Environment

I. Е. Тimchenko, I. P. Lazarchuk✉, E. M. Igumnova

Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Sevastopol, Russian Federation

✉ e-mail: lazarchuk.syst.analysis@mhi-ras.ru

Abstract

Assimilation of observational data in the marine ecosystem adaptive models constructed by the adaptive balance of causes method is considered. It is shown that the feedback balance between the ecosystem variables and the rates of their change used in the method equations, permits to introduce a stationary state of the ecosystem characterized by the observed mean values of the variables. The method for assessing the normalized coefficients of influences based on application of the Euler theorem on homogeneous functions to the functions representing material balances of biochemical reactions of the substance transformation is proposed. It is shown that the normalized ratios of the modeled process mean values can be used as the estimates of the reaction product derivatives obtained on the basis of their resources included in the equations of material balances. One-dimensional adaptive model of the sea upper layer ecosystem is constructed as an example; it is based on the scheme of cause-effect relations of the Fasham, Dacklow and McKelvie model of plankton dynamics and nitrogen cycle It is shown that in such a model, observational data is assimilated by automatic adaptation of the model variables to the assimilated information providing that the substance material balance are preserved in the transformation reactions. The data simulating both observations of the chlorophyll a concentrations and the marine environment dynamics are assimilated in the model. Time scenarios of the biochemical processes are constructed; they confirm applicability of the proposed method for assessing the effect coefficients based on the ratios of the simulated process mean values.

Keywords

adaptive balance of causes method, ABC-method, adaptive models, marine ecosystem

For citation

Тimchenko, I.Е., Lazarchuk, I.P. and Igumnova, E.M., 2017. Assimilation of the Observational Data in the Marine Ecosystem Adaptive Model at the Known Mean Values of the Processes in the Marine Environment. Physical Oceanography, (5), pp. 71-86. doi:10.22449/1573-160X-2017-5-71-86

DOI

10.22449/1573-160X-2017-5-71-86

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