Tsunami Hazard for the Crimean Coast of the Black Sea and the Kerch Strait at the Catastrophic Tsunamigenic Earthquakes, the Locations of which are Close to that of the Historical Yalta Earthquake on September 12, 1927

E. A. Baranova1, R. Kh. Mazova1, 2, ✉

1 Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n. a. R.E. Alekseev, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation

2 Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (National Research University), Dolgoprudny, Russian Federation

✉ e-mail: raissamazova@yandex.ru

Abstract

Purpose. The main purpose of the work is to assess a possible tsunami hazard for the region of location of the Crimean Bridge constructed across the Kerch Strait, since up to present, numerical simulations of the tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Black Sea have never taken the Kerch Strait region (except for the water area at the strait entrance) into consideration as a possible object for a tsunami hazard.

Methods and Results. To assess a tsunami hazard for the Kerch Strait and, particularly, for the region of location of the constructed Crimean Bridge, the present paper considers the historical catastrophic tsunamigenic earthquake in the southeastern part of the Crimea Peninsula on September 12, 1927 as well as possible strong earthquakes, the source locations and magnitudes of which can be close to those of the above-mentioned one. The available data on localization and intensity of the earthquake on September 12, 1927 allowed to model the source of such an earthquake. Besides, within the framework of the nonlinear shallow water equations, simulated were the tsunami generation and the tsunami waves’ propagation from the single- and two-block seismic sources in the Black Sea along the Crimea Peninsula, at the Kerch Strait entrance and in its water area. The seismic sources of close localization were similarly simulated for two possible tsunamigenic earthquakes in the southeastern part of the Crimea Peninsula.

Conclusions. For all the considered scenarios, generation and propagation of the tsunami waves over the water area regions under study were numerically simulated, the histograms of distribution of the wave run-up maximum heights along the Crimea Peninsula and the Kerch Strait coasts were constructed. It is shown that for all the scenarios, in the region of the Crimean Bridge western pillars the tsunami wave heights do not exceed 0.3–0.5 m, whereas in the region of its eastern pillars, possible wave heights are within the range 0.6–1.95 m. The results represented in the paper are compared with the available data on the wave heights in a number of settlements of the Crimea Peninsula coast and at the Kerch Strait entrance, obtained by the other authors.

Keywords

earthquake source, numerical simulation, generation of tsunami waves, histogram of tsunami wave maximum heights, Crimea, Kerch Strait

Original russian text

Original Russian Text © E.A. Baranova, R.Kh. Mazova, 2020, published in MORSKOY GIDROFIZICHESKIY ZHURNAL, Vol. 36, Iss. 2, pp. 123–138 (2020)

For citation

Baranova, E.A. and Mazova, R.Kh., 2020. Tsunami Hazard for the Crimean Coast of the Black Sea and the Kerch Strait at the Catastrophic Tsunamigenic Earthquakes, the Locations of which are Close to that of the Historical Yalta Earthquake on September 12, 1927. Physical Oceanography, 27(2), pp. 110-125. doi:10.22449/1573-160X-2020-2-110-125

DOI

10.22449/1573-160X-2020-2-110-125

References

  1. Nikonov, A.A., 2002. Crimean Earthquakes of 1927: Unknown Phenomena of Sea. Priroda, 9, pp. 13-20. Available at: https://priroda.ras.ru/pdf/2002-09.pdf [Accessed: 05.05.2020] (in Russian).
  2. Nedelkin, E.V., 2019. To the Question of the Consequences of the Crimean Earthquake of September 11, 1927 on the Territory of the Sevastopol District of the Autonomous Crimean Socialist Soviet Republic. The Black Sea Region. History, Politics, Culture. Series B: Modern and Contemporary History, 28, pp. 57-66. doi:10.5281/zenodo.3476029 (in Russian).
  3. Bagrova, L.A., Smirnov, V.O., Gunkina, I.Yu. and Zmerzlaya, K.S., 2013. Natural Hazards in the Crimea. Geopolitics and Ecodynamics of Regions, 9(2), pp.115-126. Available at: http://geopolitika.cfuv.ru/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/013bagr2.pdf [Accessed: 05 May 2020] (in Russian).
  4. Kim, A.Yu. and Rassada, A.A., 2018. Construction of Earthquake Resistant Houses in the Crimea after the Crimean Earthquake. In: G.Yu. Gulyaev, 2018. Student Research. Penza: Nauka i Prosveshchenie. Part 1, pp. 52-55 (in Russian).
  5. Nikonov, A.A., Gusiakov, V.K. and Fleifel’, L.D., 2018. Assessment of the Tsunami Hazard on the Russian Coast based on a New Catalogue of Tsunamis in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Russian Geology and Geophysics, 59(2), pp. 193-205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rgg.2018.01.016
  6. Papadopoulos, G.A., Diakogianni, G., Fokaefs, A. and Ranguelov, B., 2011. Tsunami Hazard in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea: A New Tsunami Catalogue. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(3), pp. 945-963. doi:10.5194/nhess-11-945-2011
  7. Grigorash, Z.K., 1959. Tsunami Propagation of 1927 in the Black Sea. In: MHI, 1959. Trudy Morskogo Gidrofizicheskogo Instituta [Proceedings of Marine Hydrophysical Institute of AS USSR]. Moscow: MHI. Iss. 18, pp. 113-116 (in Russian).
  8. Dotsenko, S.F. and Ingerov, A.V., 2010. Numerical Modeling of the Propagation and Strengthening of Tsunami Waves near the Crimean Peninsula and the Northeast Coast of the Black Sea. Physical Oceanography, 20(1), pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11110-010-9063-5
  9. Dotsenko, S.F. and Ingerov, A.V., 2010. Numerical Analysis of the Propagation and Amplification of Tsunami Waves on the Northwest shelf of the Black Sea. Physical Oceanography, 20(5), pp. 325-334. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11110-011-9088-4
  10. Dotsenko, S.F., 2012. Numerical Simulation of Tsunami in the Black, the Sea of Azov and the Caspian Sea as an Essential Element of Tsunami Early Warning Regional Systems. In: MHI, 2012. Ecological Safety of Coastal and Shelf Zones and Comprehensive Use of Shelf Resources. Sevastopol: MHI, 2012. Iss. 26, vol. 2. pp. 287-300 (in Russian).
  11. Bazykina, A.Yu., Mikhailichenko, S.Yu. and Fomin, V.V., 2018. Numerical Simulation of Tsunami in the Black Sea Caused by the Earthquake on September 12, 1927. Physical Oceanography, 25(4), pp. 295-304. doi:10.22449/1573-160X-2018-4-295-304
  12. Zaitsev, A.I. and Pelinovsky, E.N., 2011. Forecasting of Tsunami Wave Heights at the Russian Coast of the Black Sea. Oceanology, 51(6), pp. 907-915. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001437011050225
  13. Lobkovsky, L.I., Mazova, R.Kh., Baranova, E.A. and Tugaryov, A.M., 2018. Numerical Simulation of Propagation of the Black Sea and the Azov Sea Tsunami through the Kerch Strait. Physical Oceanography, 25(2), pp. 102-113. doi:10.22449/1573-160X-2018-2-102-113
  14. Isvoranu, D. and Badescu, V., 2012. Hydrodynamics of Tsunamis Generated by Asteroid Impact in the Black Sea. Open Physics, 10(2), pp. 429-446. doi:10.2478/s11534-012-0012-4
  15. Mazova, R.Kh. and Tresvyatskaya, E.A., 2006. Numerical Modeling of the Generation of Long Waves by a Dynamic Seismic Source and Their Propagation in the Black Sea. Russian Journal of Earth Sciences, 8(6), ES6003. doi:10.2205/2006ES000212
  16. Moldovan, I.A., Diaconescu, M., Partheniu, R., Constantin, A.P., Popescu, E. and Toma-Danila, D., 2017. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Black Sea Area. Romanian Journal of Physics, 62(5–6), 809. Available at: https://www.nipne.ro/rjp/2017_62_5-6/RomJPhys.62.809.pdf [Accessed: 13 May 2020].
  17. Yalçiner, A., Pelinovsky, E., Talipova, T., Kurkin, A., Kozelkov, A. and Zaitsev, A., 2004. Tsunamis in the Black Sea: Comparison of the Historical, Instrumental, and Numerical Data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 109(C12), C12023. doi:10.1029/2003JC002113
  18. Schiermeier, Q., 2005. Tsunamis: A Long-Term Threat. Nature, 433(7021), pp. 4. https://doi.org/10.1038/433004a
  19. Vinokurov, N.I., Korzhenkov, A.M. and Rodkin, M.V., 2015. Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Kerch Strait Region by Archeoseismology Data. Problems of Engineering Seismology, 42(2), pp. 51-66 (in Russian).
  20. Nikonov, A.A., 1994. The Signs of Neotectonic Activity in the Zones of the South Azov and Kerch Faults. Geotektonika, (5), pp. 16-28 (in Russian).
  21. Gorshkov, A.I., Soloviev, A.A. and Zharkikh, Y.I., 2017. Morphostructural Zoning of the Mountainous Crimea and the Possible Locations of Future Earthquakes. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, 11(6), pp. 407-412. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046317060021
  22. Wells, D.L. and Coppersmith, K.J., 1994. New Empirical Relationships Among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area and Surface Displacement. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84(4), pp. 974-1002.
  23. Sielecki, A. and Wurtele, M.G., 1970. The numerical Integration of the Nonlinear Shallow-Water Equations with Sloping Boundaries. Journal of Computational Physics, 6(2), pp. 219-236. doi:10.1016/0021-9991(70)90022-7

Download the article (PDF)