Simulation of a Fuel Oil Spill Using the Oil-Spill Model SPILLMOD

V. V. Solbakov1, ✉, S. N. Zatsepa2, N. А. Diansky2, 3, 4, А. А. Ivchenko2, E. А. Korshenko2, I. I. Panasenkova2, 5, V. V. Fomin2, 4, 5

1 Federal Research Center “Computer Science and Control”, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation

2 N. N. Zubov’s State Oceanographic Institute, Roshydromet, Moscow, Russian Federation

3 M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation

4 Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation

5 Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, Moscow, Russian Federation

✉ e-mail: vsolbakov@frccsc.ru

Abstract

Purpose. The aim of the work is to comprehensively analyze the key factors distinguishing the accident involving the Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 tankers in the Kerch Strait on December 15, 2024 from many other spills, namely the fuel oil characteristics, the pollution source features, and the hydrometeorological conditions significant for mathematical modeling.

Methods and Results. The oil spill transport was simulated using a set of the SPILLMOD mathematical models. An integrated system for operational forecasting of hydrometeorological characteristics (Marine Hindcast and Forecast System, MHFS) including the regional atmospheric model WRF and the Russian marine circulation model INMOM was applied for hydrometeorological forecasts. The conducted assessments have shown that the specific features of the accident and the properties of transported fuel oil resulted in the prolonged fuel oil release from the source. However, 95 % of the tank contents was released within the first few days. During this period the source power decreases by at least two orders of magnitude.

Conclusions. The results of simulation performed in the first days after the accident are confirmed by coastal monitoring data. Application of the SPILLMOD model made it possible to determine the time and locations of the release of fuel oil pollution into the coastal zone. Subsequent assessments of the intensity of fuel oil spill revealed the fact that the bulk of the fuel oil that entered the sea was brought to the coast and shallow waters in the area from Veselovka settlement to Anapa resort city. The information on time, locations and volumes of fuel oil collected in this area are consistent with the proposed hypothesis on a rapid decrease with time of the intensity of fuel oil release to marine environment, and also indicate the adequate choice and successful application of the selected models, forecasts of hydrometeorological characteristics and calculation systems. The similarity between the density of fuel oil and that of water, its high viscosity and the hydrological characteristics of the Kerch Strait, the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea may result in both positive and negative buoyancy, as well as formation of seabed oil-mineral aggregates when fuel oil is combined with suspended matter and sand. Adequate forecast of the distribution of heavy oil types requires the improved models describing the transformation processes which include sedimentation of the dispersed and floating oil.

Keywords

fuel oil spill, Kerch Strait, mathematical modeling, numerical modeling, forecast of hydrometeorological characteristics, hydrometeorological characteristics, marine oil spills, INMOM, SPILLMOD, Black Sea

About the authors

Vyacheslav V. Solbakov, Senior Researcher, Federal Research Center “Computer Science and Control”, Russian Academy of Sciences, (44/2 Vavilova Str., Moscow, 119333, Russian Federation), CSc. (Phys.-Math.), Scopus Author ID: 6506793953, ResearcherID: AAB-6735-2019, SPIN-code: 7656-6621, vsolbakov@frccsc.ru

Sergei N. Zatsepa, Head of the Laboratory for Modeling the State of the Marine Environment, N. N. Zubov’s State Oceanographic Institute, Roshydromet (6 Kropotkinskiy Lane, Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation), DSc. (Phys.-Math.), ORCID ID: 0000-0002-7072-3920, ResearcherID: T-1242-2018, Scopus Author ID: 55950369100, SPIN-code: 3922-3330, zatsepa@gmail.com

Nikolay A. Diansky, Chief Researcher, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University (1 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation), DSc. (Phys.-Math.), Associate Professor, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-6785-1956, ResearcherID: R-8307-2018, SPIN-code: 5450-6667, nikolay.diansky@gmail.com

Аleksandr А. Ivchenko, Senior Researcher, N.N. Zubov’s State Oceanographic Institute, Roshydromet (6 Kropotkinskiy Lane, Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation), ORCID ID: 0009-0003-3828-378X, Scopus Author ID: 55950528300, SPIN-code: 5443-1160, alivch654@gmail.com

Evgeniya A. Korshenko, Researcher, Department of Numerical Modeling of Hydrophysical Processes, Laboratory of Operational Modeling, N.N. Zubov’s State Oceanographic Institute, Roshydromet (6 Kropotkinskiy Lane, Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation), ORCID ID: 0000-0003-2310-9730, ResearcherID: AAE-3617-2019, Scopus Author ID: 57194570985, SPIN-code: 1754-4563, zhenyakorshenko@gmail.com

Irina I. Panasenkova, Researcher, N.N. Zubov’s State Oceanographic Institute, Roshydromet (6 Kropotkinskiy Lane, Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation), ORCID ID: 0000-0002-8338-4825, ResearcherID: AAE-4131-2019, Scopus Author ID: 57202425753, SPIN-code: 1193-6046, ipanasenkova@mail.ru

Vladimir V. Fomin, Head of Laboratory, Senior Researcher, N.N. Zubov’s State Oceanographic Institute, Roshydromet (6 Kropotkinskiy Lane, Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation), ORCID ID: 0000-0001-8857-1518, ResearcherID: C-2124-2017, Scopus Author ID: 57208310824, SPIN-code: 8803-9548, vladimirfomin@gmail.com

Original russian text

Original Russian Text © The Authors, 2026, published in MORSKOY GIDROFIZICHESKIY ZHURNAL, Vol. 42, Iss. 3, pp. 483–505 (2026)

For citation

Solbakov, V.V., Zatsepa, S.N., Diansky, N.A., Ivchenko, A.A., Korshenko, E.A., Panasenkova, I.I. and Fomin, V.V., 2026. Simulation of a Fuel Oil Spill Using the Oil-Spill Model SPILLMOD. Physical Oceanography, 33(3), pp. 516–537.

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